Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4296 · SNA → LAS
departs 7:45 AM PT · arrives 9:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3 3%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.