WN 4298 · DEN → RNO

departs 8:36 AM MT · arrives 9:54 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RNO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4298 · DEN → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?