WN 4312 · SFO → BUR

departs 2:01 PM PT · arrives 3:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4312 · SFO → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?