Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4318
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4318 · STL → OMA
departs 8:10 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 6%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.32 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.