Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 431 · DEN → PHX
departs 8:30 AM MT · arrives 9:25 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±4 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.