WN 4331 · LAS → MAF

departs 1:06 PM PT · arrives 5:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MAF?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MAF (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4331 · LAS → MAF

Odds over time

How late will it get to MAF?