Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4340
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4340 · LAS → ELP
departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 12:45 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.