Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4344
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4344 · MSY → BNA
departs 6:15 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.