Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4347
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4347 · PHX → BWI
departs 4:25 PM MT · arrives 11:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 24%
Mon 10/5 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.