Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4371
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4371 · BNA → SAT
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 44%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.