WN 4372 · SMF → SAN

departs 6:11 AM PT · arrives 7:51 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAN that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SMF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4372 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?