WN 4394 · SAV → BWI

departs 2:16 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at SAV that day

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SAV are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAV (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4394 · SAV → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?