Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4396
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4396 · DAL → ELP
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 1:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.