Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4401 · LGA → DAL
departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 56%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±7 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.6 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.