WN 441 · BWI → AUS

departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip2.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 441 · BWI → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?