Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4422 · SBA → LAS
departs 5:05 AM PT · arrives 6:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 9/30 4%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 4%
Mon 10/5 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at SBA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from SBA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.