Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4426 · AUS → PHX
departs 7:40 PM CT · arrives 8:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.94 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.