WN 4426 · ICT → DEN

departs 7:31 PM CT · arrives 8:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ICT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ ICT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ICT (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.81 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4426 · ICT → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?