Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4429 · DEN → BNA
departs 8:10 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 28%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.