WN 4430 · LGA → MDW

departs 7:19 AM ET · arrives 8:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4430 · LGA → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?