WN 4433 · LAX → MDW

departs 4:01 PM PT · arrives 10:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4433 · LAX → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?