WN 4458 · STL → AUS

departs 8:36 AM CT · arrives 10:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4458 · STL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?