Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4461 · FAT → LAS
departs 4:35 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.