WN 4469 · AUS → MDW

departs 3:06 PM CT · arrives 5:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4469 · AUS → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?