WN 4483 · DEN → LGB

departs 2:51 PM MT · arrives 4:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4483 · DEN → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?