WN 4486 · SAN → AUS

departs 9:11 AM PT · arrives 2:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,433 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4486 · SAN → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?