Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4487
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4487 · LAS → COS
departs 7:50 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
COS (destination)
Gusts 38 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.