Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4488 · LAS → OAK
departs 1:30 PM PT · arrives 3:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 18%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.