Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4490 · HOU → OKC
departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 8:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 3.3 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into OKC at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.