WN 4502 · MCI → BNA

departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.64 in

BNA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4502 · MCI → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?