WN 4510 · BWI → SJU

departs 8:12 AM ET · arrives 12:24 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SJU that day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4510 · BWI → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?