Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4510 · PHX → SNA
departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 6:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.