Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4519 · BNA → MKE
departs 10:40 PM CT · arrives 12:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 35%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MKE (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.