Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4527 · ONT → HNL
departs 8:00 AM PT · arrives 10:50 AM HT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
ONT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.