Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4536
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4536 · IND → BWI
departs 4:40 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 9/30 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.