Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4541 · LAX → MDW
departs 6:20 PM PT · arrives 12:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.