Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4546 · MDW → TPA
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 6:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
79%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
79%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
32%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
79%
Yes 79%
No 21%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
23%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.