Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4554 · LAX → OAK
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3 23%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at OAK that day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.