Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4563
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4563 · BNA → GSP
departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at GSP that day
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.