Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4573 · LGA → MDW
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 12:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 20%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.85 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.