WN 4574 · MDW → PVD

departs 6:46 PM CT · arrives 10:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

PVD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4574 · MDW → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?