Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4578 · BWI → TPA
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 31%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.