WN 4579 · SFO → MDW

departs 5:36 AM PT · arrives 11:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SFO are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4579 · SFO → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?