Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4587 · LAS → OMA
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 1:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+32 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
35%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +32 pts in 24h
+32 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 2.88 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.