WN 4595 · MCO → ISP

departs 7:46 AM ET · arrives 10:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ISP?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into ISP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ISP (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4595 · MCO → ISP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ISP?