Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4597 · MDW → SDF
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 29%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 61% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.