WN 459 · JAX → DEN

departs 5:06 PM ET · arrives 6:42 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±1 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 459 · JAX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?