Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4606
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4606 · MDW → ATL
departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 1:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
11am departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.