WN 4607 · LAS → SAT

departs 11:45 AM PT · arrives 4:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 11am departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4607 · LAS → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?