Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4610
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4610 · DEN → AUS
departs 11:20 AM MT · arrives 2:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.